RESEARCH
“Counting the cars on the New Jersey turnpike, they all come to look for America” - Simon & Garfunkel We all loved America. Heck, even I, who could even back then see all the warts i ....
Quiz question: Which was the last Indian crisis that led to sharp Rupee weakness?Answer: The BOP crisis, back in 1991. Rupee depreciation not home-grown Surprised? After the BOP crisis o ....
Please click here to download the full report. Understandably, the whole world is in a tizzy on the twin news that Russia has asked to be paid in Roubles or Gold for its oil and gas and ....
30-Dec'20 Even in today’s Brave New World, many people still believe that currencies cannot be forecasted and many forex hedgers believe that forecasting the currency movement is not part of the ....
126% RUPEE WEAKNESS and DAMPENING OF INVESTMENTS: POSSIBLE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF RBI’S EXCHANGE RATE POLICY Please click here to download the full PDF Report. Or, ho ....
NOTE 1: This is not a strictly predictive report. This is more of an exploration of possible multi-decade trends for Dollar-Rupee. It aims to lay out two main possibilities (of either Rupee stren ....
Slide 1 Hello, Dear Clients. The general market sentiment is very bullish on Gold right now, with people looking for 2000$+ levels and Ray Dalio's article on Linked adding to the sentiment. ....
Contrary to popular belief that weather forecasts are notoriously unreliable, they have actually become 72% reliable over the last 35 years. Similarly, contrary to the popular notion that currencies c ....
Actual global inflation for 2017 came out at 3.8%, much higher than the consensus forecast of 3.27%. Consensus forecasts for 2018 (3.6%) & 2019 (3.34%) have also been gradually revised upwards in ....
The above video updates the Dec '17 chart showing Consensus Forecasts for Global GDP Growth in 2017-20. It explores the reasons for a possible dip in 2018 growth and also the expected impact of such a ....
The video shows what we had predicted for the BSE Large Cap/Mid Cap Ratio in Nov '17 and what actually happened. Also included is our prediction for the next move. For more such research, keep visitin ....
In Dec ’17, we were expecting Dollar to strengthen in 2018. At that time, Dollar Index (reverse) and Euro looked like they were about to begin a 5th wave in their downmove from 2008 (see chart below ....
We asked the above question in Dec ’17, when the 10yr GOI yield was 7.09% and featured the below chart for the month of May in our 2018 Economic Calendar. The GOI yield has indeed risen, to 7.77%, ....
We asked the above question in Dec ’17. The chart of Rupee Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and Nifty PE evolved since then, as below: Nifty PE had reached 26.6, which was near the peak last see ....
Anyone wanting to evaluate our service would ask the above question. As an answer, we compare our forecasts with the results of the RBI’s bimonthly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), which ....
Forecasts? Everyone needs one. “Nobody can forecast currencies” is an oft heard statement. This is a popular perception, perpetuated by academic literature of the time as well as statements f ....
How much can you rely on our Dollar-Rupee forecasts? One way we answer that question is by measuring and tracking our Reliability over time. Incidentally, we are the only forecasters to publish an 1 ....
WHAT IS THE ONE FACTOR TO WATCH FOR IN CURRENCIES? There seem to be so many variables that impact currencies, so much news and data releases to follow, so much to keep track of, that it is easy to ge ....
Highlights of Kshitij Forecasts: 2016 Kshitij has been making long term forecast for almost the last 16 years to help you meet with the oppurtunities that the market inevitably brings. We were ran ....
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Our last reading was for chances of slow decline towards 2.3-2.2% through Feb and March which did not happen, as Yellen possibly does not want to fall "behind the curve" and has ke ....
Merriam Webster defines “Quality assurance” as “a program for the systematic monitoring and evaluation of the various aspects of a project, service or facility to ensure that standards of qualit ....
02-Nov-16 / DJIA 17960 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The US stock market generally remains unaffected by the presidential election in the long run, as evident from the chart below. Except for the tenure of Geor ....
05-August-16 Real World GDP 2015: 3.1% / Current Global GDP consensus: 3.04% (2016) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It is to be reasonably expected that initial forecasts of global GDP forecasts may be off the mar ....
02-May-16 / Brent 45.91 / USDINR 66.44 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Contrary to the popular notion, data shows that Rupee & Brent Crude move mostly in a similar direction and not opposite to each other. Th ....
26-Apr-16 Dow Jones @ 17990 Could we be on the cusp of a gigantic bull run in the Dow Jones? If history repeats itself, the chances would be high. In the last 115 years, there have been two per ....
I must be wrong only. But generally, a crisis does not hit when everyone out there is looking for it. It generally has an element of surprise, no?May 2014, Modi could do no wrong. The stock markets we ....
Indian IIP data for Nov-14 (+3.8% y/y) was released on 12-Jan-15. It has moved up smartly from the -4.2%. growth for Oct-14. But is that unequivocal good news? This report looks at the Indian IIP gro ....
In this issue Yield Differentials suggests strength in EUR-USD going forward Corrigendum – The Sensex has strength of its own also Yield Differentials suggest strength in EUR-USD going forw ....
"Where is the market going?” is the foremost thought that occupies most market participants most of the time. In general the reference is to Price - whether it is going up, down or sideways. The mor ....
Sensex: 19058.67 Recap 22 moons ago, on 20-Jan-2006 , when the Sensex was 9311, we had said that “..although the Sensex has risen 300% since April-2003, there could still be a lot of room on the u ....
Conventional market wisdom tells us that Yield Inversion usually leads to a recession. Yield inversion happens when long-term yields trade below short term yields. Most of the time, the focus of the i ....
Sensex: 9311.19 Happy New Year ! Gentle Reader, this issue comes out after a considerable gap (so what's new?) and you could say we've been lazy. We would say we've been busy making money for Clie ....
The best long-term investors do not enter into the age old "Fundamentals v/s Technicals" debate. They try and combine both techniques to their advantage. This article focuses on how both Fundamentals ....
A few words .... We used to bring out "The Colour of Money" as a weekly forecast of the currency markets some years ago and it used to be well appreciated by a few connoisseurs. However, we discontin ....
It is important to know the characteristics of any market that we trade. This helps us approach the market with more awareness and reduces the element of surprise. It also helps us formulate our trad ....
In our Oct-24 report (01-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 3.79%), we had said that in contrast with history, there were no immediate signs of a US recession and the earlier it could set in might be in Jan-Mar 2025, or maybe even later. We also favored just a slowdown, or at most a shallow recession. In accordance with this, the US data in October has been mixed to strong …. Read More
In our Oct-24 report (3-Oct-24, Brent $74.98), we had expected Brent to trade within $80-60 in the coming months. We had laid out a possibility of downside extension to $55-50 in case of a US recession in the Jan-Mar’25 quarter. Else a shallow recession or slowdown could limit the downside to $60. Brent remained above the Sep-24 low of $68.68 through Oct-24 trading within the broad $81.16-69.91 region, in line with our broader mentioned range of $80-60. … Read More
After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ……. Read More
Our November ’24 Monthly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
Our November ’24 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.