Amplitude Probability Distribution for Currencies
Apr, 26, 2002 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments
It is important to know the characteristics of any market that we trade. This helps us approach the market with more awareness and reduces the element of surprise. It also helps us formulate our trading strategies.
In the following pages we try to answer the question, "How much do currencies move over various time frames". We have examined price data for EUR-USD, USD-JPY and USD-CHF for the last 3 years to see what is the Amplitude (difference between the High and Low) for these currencies over 1, 3 and 5 day time frames.
We believe that this might be helpful in 1) enabling us to choose a suitable Time Frame for our trading activity and 2) forming an idea of how much profit/ loss might be reasonably expected in our chosen time frames.
Put into other words, this is also an examination of the Volatility of the subject currencies in various time frames.
Please click on
EUR-USD
USD-JPY
USD-CHF
EURUSD Amplitude
USDJPY Amplitude
USDCHF Amplitude
In our last report (28-Mar-26, UST10Yr 4.43%), we had assumed little chances of the USA being able to easily extricate itself from the US-Israel-Iran war, and we said that as long Brent remains above $80, we can look for a sharper rise in the US10Yr towards …. Read More
The escalation of war between US and Iran throughout March-26 has led to a rally in Brent prices to as high as $119.50, exceeding our bullish targets by a large margin, much ahead of expected time. Will it remain bullish for the coming years?… Read More
The major rally in crude prices over the last 1-month and continued elevated prices through the year could lay major impact on the currencies. With the Dollar Index and Crude prices being elevated there could be little room for Euro on the upside. However, it would be interesting to see if any resolution is arrived at between US and Iran this year itself which could lead to some stability in prices. …. Read More
In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and potentially force tightening. This inflation shock, along with higher US yields, was expected to push the 10Yr GOI up to … Read More
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
Our April ’26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.