Apr, 26, 2002 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments

It is important to know the characteristics of any market that we trade. This helps us approach the market with more awareness and reduces the element of surprise. It also helps us formulate our trading strategies.
In the following pages we try to answer the question, "How much do currencies move over various time frames". We have examined price data for EUR-USD, USD-JPY and USD-CHF for the last 3 years to see what is the Amplitude (difference between the High and Low) for these currencies over 1, 3 and 5 day time frames.
We believe that this might be helpful in 1) enabling us to choose a suitable Time Frame for our trading activity and 2) forming an idea of how much profit/ loss might be reasonably expected in our chosen time frames.
Put into other words, this is also an examination of the Volatility of the subject currencies in various time frames.
Please click on
EUR-USD
USD-JPY
USD-CHF
EURUSD Amplitude

USDJPY Amplitude

USDCHF Amplitude

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
In our last report (29-Jul-26, UST10Y 4.62%) we had said there were greater chances of rate hike on 16-September; we had also called for higher Yields, targeting 4.75% on the US2Yr, 4.80% on the US5Yr and 5.00% on the US10Yr. Both the prognoses seem to be …. Read More
In our August 2026 report (7-Aug-26, Brent @ $83.61), we had expected Brent to range within $70-100 for the rest of the year before eventually rising above $100 going into 2027. Brent has already risen to $109.97 in Sep-26 so far as the US-Iran conflict has re-escalated, impacting the transit activity in the Strait of Hormuz. … Read More
Euro has a positive correlation with US ISM since 2009, except in the period mid-2023 to mid-2025. Positive correlation suggests that while the US ISM rises in the coming months to 58-59, the Euro could rise or remain elevated within …. Read More
In our 05-Aug-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.82%), we projected a 6.63-6.95% range for a few months before a rise towards 7.10% by Jul-27, assuming Brent stayed within $75-95 before rising to $115. Brent is already up to $105, pushing the 10Yr GOI close to … Read More
Our September ’26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

