FOREX RISK MANAGEMENT
Without a doubt, I can safely say that the forex market has taught me a lot about life. Recently, I had another “A-Ha!” moment, when I gained a crucial insight about human relations from fore ....
Last week, through the red alert and torrential rain, waterlogged roads and WFH, we met 10 corporate forex risk management teams in Mumbai, all the way from Fort in the south to Thane in the north. G ....
Operation Sindoor isn’t just about military strategy — it’s a declaration of self-reliance. By bypassing advanced air defences and intercepting drones and missiles of Chinese and Turkish origi ....
During the pandemic, in the charming city of Kolkata, a middle aged lady and her tech-savvy daughter started a cloud-bakery called "The Sweet Spot." The mother, Sharmila, whose tarts and bruschettas ....
“All I want is a room somewhere Far away from the cold night air Lots of chocolate for me to eat Lots of coal makin' lots of heat Warm face, warm hands, warm feet Oh, wouldn't it be loverly?” So ....
When it comes to forex hedging, the Forward Contract offered by the banks is the most preferred instrument, used by all the exporters and importers. However, there are times when the banks are in ....
To see where the Indian Rupee is going we look at 50 factors. Yes, you read it right, 50 factors. Click Here to see the video Those include global currencies (Euro, EM Currencies etc), eq ....
Very frankly, as forex advisors, the onus lies on us to win the respect of our clients. This piece of thought is for ourselves at Kshitij.com as well as for our peers in the forex advisory space. ....
Many a times I think the forex risk management practice resembles physical fitness. Everyone knows it is very important, but very few people do anything at all about it. Among those who hedge, fe ....
Yes, it is true. Like in all other important aspects of life, in forex hedging also, size indeed matters. Remember that old formula, R = p.q, or Revenue (or Outgo) = Price x Quantity? ....
August 2018 has been a trying time for Importers because Rupee has depreciated to its weakest ever level of 70.39. In this video we show how our Reliable long-term Dollar-Rupee forecasts and systemat ....
The old financial year is over. The accounts are done and profit/ loss has been calculated. Hopefully you would have seen a good growth in turnover and profits. And, in the case of your Imports/ E ....
Forecasts and Accountability Everybody loves a forecast and wants to know where Dollar-Rupee is headed. This is natural because forex is the business of every importer/ exporter. Even the RBI conducts ....
Here's another very important MS Excel tip, one that I got from one of our clients. It has made my life so much simpler. Thank you, Krishnan! Need for Weighted Average Let us say there is a company ....
98% of companies do not use specialized software to track their exposures (like Letters of Credit, Buyers' Credits, Rupee Packing Credit etc) and hedges (like Forward Contracts and Options). All the w ....
YOUR BOSS NEEDS TO SEE THIS I would be a rich man if I had a Rupee for every time I have heard the phrase "Forex is not my business" from corporates with forex exposures. Please show this article to y ....
Forex risk management is a frustrating experience for most companies. There seem to be a thousand things that can go wrong at any time - the economy, the market, the forecasts, the regulations, the sh ....
An astounding thing we have encountered while advising companies on forex risk management is that almost no company has allocated a budget for meeting forex hedging costs. Companies may have voluminou ....
Cash-Spot is one of the lesser known technical concepts in the forex market. Nothing earth shattering, really, but it is always good to know the technical details of the market we operate in. The fore ....
Most exporters price their goods on a “cost plus” basis. They add a certain cushion for forex volatility to their domestic costs and quote a Dollar price accordingly. Importers take whatever Dolla ....
This might be a little basic for old hands in the market, but there is often a misconception among new entrants that the Forward Rate is a forecast of where the rate is going. For instance, if on 09-M ....
Many clients we work with, especially SME clients, and more especially Exporters, tend to prefer an “Option Period” Forward Contract rather than a “Fixed Date” Forward Contract. Option Perio ....
One of the most agonizing difficulties commonly faced by the risk manager is not knowing where the market is likely to go. This makes it nearly impossible for him to decide whether to hedge or not to ....
Most corporate risk managers refer to their hedges, such as forward contacts, as their "market position". They think that taking a hedge is the same as taking a trading position in the market. This is ....
Rupee Volatility has increased The last couple of years have been particularly painful for Corporate India in many ways. Forex Risk Management has been one of the ways by which several hundred crores ....
At a time when there has been a big jump in risk aversion in global financial markets, this article challenges two revered canons of forex risk management. The article will first build a case that com ....
Gentle Reader, In this issue, we take a detailed look at the pros and cons of the to-be-introduced exchange traded Dollar-Rupee Futures The RBI has been working on the introduction of Rupee Futures ....
It is an open secret that every Corporate Hedger wants to pay no more than Zero for an Option that he buys. Banks oblige by constructing “zero cost” strategies. The concept of zero cost structures ....
Good to be with you again, Gentle Reader! This issue talks about: The need for focusing on the Currency Risk Management Process in the Corporate sector Please keep those comments coming. We love ....
Very few companies have adopted a formal plan or strategy for managing FX Risk. Amongst the few that have, most work on the basis of a fixed (static) benchmark for the whole year. We think Benchmarks ....
Netting – An outdated concept? A company has both Imports and Exports. Should it manage the FX Risk on both legs, i.e. on Gross basis? Or on the differential amount, i.e. on Net basis? Many companie ....
In the issue dated 25-Aug-04 we presented the case of a corporate that stuck to its long term objective even in bad times on a currency swap that went very bad initially; but ultimately booked hands ....
In this Issue Series on Issues in Corporate Risk Management - Part 2 - Stick to Objectives Issues in Corporate Risk Management Keep the Objective in mind. It pays The definition of proper Obje ....
A Tale of Two E-mails.....As many of you know, we provide a twice-daily trade recommendation service called "FX Thoughts of the Day". We are one of the several such services on the Internet and cann ....
FOLLOW UP - Bear SHS in Sterling? In the last issue we had pointed out a three decade old Downtrend Resistance on the GBPUSD Monthly chart, which presaged weakness in GBPUSD. Technical Analysis is ....
A few words…This is the second issue of “The Colour of Money” after its revival. Many of our old Readers have written to say they are glad to receive this publication again. We thank them for th ....
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
Our last report (03-Oct-26, UST10Y 5.28%) warned of increased chances of Brent rising towards $135-145, US Core PCE rising towards 4.5-5.0% and the US10Yr rising towards 5.80% (Dec-26) and 6.00% (Aug-27). While Brent has risen to nearly $117 and the Core PCE (Aug-27) has inched up to 3.01%, we find that US Yields have fallen across …. Read More
In our October 2026 report (5-Oct-26, Brent @ $101.71), we had stated Brent would be structurally bullish for the long term based on the technical analysis, within which a test of $115 was expected in Oct-26, followed by a test of $134 by Dec-26 and eventually targeting $145 in 2027. In line with our expectation, Brent did test $117.45, slightly higher than our expected $115 in Oct-26. … Read More
In our September 2026 report (4-Sep-26, EURUSD 1.1620), we revised our Euro forecast upwards due to lack of followthrough selling below 1.14. We expected the Euro to range between 1.1980-1.13 for the next 1yr. However, in line with our earlier bearish outlook, the Euro fell sharply to …. Read More
In our 06-Oct-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.19%%), we examined the possibility of the RBI not raising the Repo rate, even though 91% of the market expected it to raise. We were barking up the wrong tree as the RBI did indeed raise the Repo on 07-Oct. Thankfully, our forecasted rise in Brent to $115-120 did materialize well with Brent touching a high of $118 on 30-Oct. We also forecasted that … Read More
Our November ’26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.