Rupee Forecasting - The KSHITIJ Way
Aug, 18, 2020 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments
To see where the Indian Rupee is going we look at 50 factors. Yes, you read it right, 50 factors.
Those include global currencies (Euro, EM Currencies etc), equities (Dow Jones, MSCI EM indices etc), commodities (Gold, copper, oil etc), bonds (US Treasury, TED Spread etc) and fundamental data.
Correlation studies and inter-market relationships also form a major part of our analysis.
The extensive study we do on all these factors helps us gauge where the Rupee is going, but we don't stop here. We also record all our forecasts and conduct performance reviews in order to make continuous improvements and minimize errors in what we do.
Direction and Timing of Forecasts
Over the years, many of our clients have asked us why, when we publish forecasts, sometimes we predict the direction of the movement correctly, the timing of our prediction is incorrect.
Here, we wish to provide some clarity in that regard.
Tools Used in Kshitij Charts
Some of the basic tools that we at Kshitij use in our charts for our analysis are: 1. Trendlines 2. Candles 3. Moving Averages 4. Line Charts Most of our charts are very simple with only the above mentioned basic tools. We do not use many oscillators or momentum indicators either.
The Reliability of Kshitij Forecasts
Through our currency forecasts and hedging strategies, we like to think that we provide a sense of reliability to our clients. This is most manifest in the 14-year track record of our Dollar-Rupee forecasts, the first, and to our knowledge, still the only one of its kind in India, which proves in real, verifiable numbers, a reliability of 74%.
Rupee Forecasting - Advanced Techniques - The KSHITIJ Way
To see where the Indian Rupee is going we look at 50 factors. Yes, you read it right, 50 factors. Those include global currencies (Euro, EM Currencies etc), equities (Dow Jones, MSCI EM indices etc), commodities (Gold, copper, oil etc), bonds (US Treasury, TED Spread etc) and fundamental data. Correlation studies and inter-market relationships also form a major part of our analysis. The extensive study we do on all these factors helps us gauge where the Rupee is going, but we don't stop here. We also record all our forecasts and conduct performance reviews in order to make continuous improvements and minimize errors in what we do.
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