Jul, 08, 2017 By C S Vijayalakshmi 0 comments
In the Jun’17 report (AUDUSD was 0.7523) we had kept our bullish stance for Aussie intact while waiting for confirmation on a break above 0.7750-0.7850.
We remain bullish on Aussie but expect a dip in July, to be followed by resumption in the uptrend thereafter towards 0.80. A break above 0.7750-0.7850 has not materialized yet and remains an important level to be kept an eye on. An actual breakout may occur in August or September as mentioned in our June report also.
Aussie indeed rose in June in line with our expectations and has come up to test the near term resistance zone of 0.7750-0.7850. Clear contraction in price movement is visible from the chart above since Dec’15 and is probably nearing exhaustion within July or August. We expect a short-lived dip to 0.75 or slightly lower in July, to be followed by a sharp break above 0.78 over August and September, along the path shown by blue line on the chart above, heading towards 0.80.
CAD/USD strengthened in June (from 1.2947 to 1.3547), contrary to our expectation of a further fall and could continue to rise over July and August. In the chart above, we have broken up the fall from 1.029 in Sep’12 to 0.688 in Jan’16 into 5-waves (as per the Elliot wave principle), which is being followed by an “A-B-C” correction that may possibly end near 0.84. Wave “C” is assumed to be playing out currently which could extend to 0.84 on the upside over the next few weeks indicating bullishness for the near term. This could indicate strength in Aussie too towards 0.80.
We have been following Copper for the last few months and it has been beautifully holding above 2.5 since Dec’16. We may now expect a rise towards 2.80-3.00 in the coming months.
It has moved up well in June from 2.5155 to 2.71 in line with our expectation and could be headed towards 2.80-3.00 over July and August. This could also boost the rise in CAD and Aussie, both being commodity currencies.
Close directional correlation between CAD, Copper and Aussie, continues to exist. A rise in Copper and CAD is supportive of a possible rise in Aussie mentioned in the previous page. Mild correction to 0.75 in July followed by a rise in August towards 0.78 is the preferred path for Aussie.
Viji has the rare ability to look at charts using both Classical charting as well as Elliot Waves, which she combines with excellent proficiency in Excel. A growing presence in the social media sphere, she is also an accomplished danseuse and choreographer.
Forex reports by KSHITIJ.COM are based on dedicated and in depth analysis of various economic and financial parameters. Hence the judgement, quality, probability and reliability of these forex risk management views are quite high.
We are privileged to be associated with Kshitij as our Forex Advisor. Their valuable advice has helped Marico to redefine its forex management policies. We look forward to a long and rewarding association with them.
Kshitij is the only advisor that has taken a firm stand on the market at various times and at the same time they have always been willing to accept their mistakes gracefully.