NOTE 1: This is not a strictly predictive report. This is more of an exploration of possible multi-decade trends for Dollar-Rupee. It aims to lay out two main possibilities (of either Rupee strength towards 60 against the US Dollar, or weakness towards 172) before policy makers; and to suggest that we, as a country, should choose the path of Rupee strength. 

NOTE 2: As per our analysis in Chart 6a and Chart 6b herein, the post-Independence rise in USD-INR might have already gotten over at 74.4825 in Oct-2018. The validity of this analysis hinges on the acceptance of a particular rare phenomenon. We are accepting this rare phenomenon because

(A) acceptance thereof allows the Rupee movement since 2008 to fit in with some other movements in the global currency market and (B) although rare, the phenomenon cannot be rejected (a bit like, although rare, a white peacock is accepted as a peacock, not rejected.) 

NOTE 3: We are sharing this analysis because (A) we sincerely believe it has merit and (B) there is a very important policy implication to be considered at the highest level (please refer Note 1 above).

NOTE 4:  There is a 30-50% chance that our analysis is wrong. But, there is also a 50-70% chance that the analysis is right. Even if the analysis is wrong and USDINR has not already seen a top at 74.4825 in Oct-2018, there is a very good chance (near 70%) that the post-Independence weakness of the Rupee can naturally come to an end anywhere between 75-77. That is, if the economic orthodoxy of the authorities does not stand in the way and disrupt the natural movement of the USDINR. The alternative would be to see Rupee weakness continue into perpetuity.

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