Jul, 17, 2006 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments
Here is another trading story, again with Dollar-Yen as the background. Many Traders, especially in the early years, do not realize that there are two kinds of market - a sideways ranging market and a trending market. And unfortunately, there are often two kinds of Traders - range traders and trend traders.
This story unfolds in the first half of 1999. The Dollar-Yen market had stabilized after the fall of 1998. It had been trading sideways in a 7-big figure range between 117-124 from Feb-99.
Range Traders were busy making money hand over fist, buying low and selling high. The secret of their success was that few worked with Stops, because Stops have a habit of getting triggered in a ranging market.
But then, the unexpected (though inevitable) happened. Dollar-Yen crashed in July-99 to hit 115. A lot of the Range Traders were caught Long and wrong. Moreover, they did not have Stops in place. Worse, the market paused a bit after hitting 115. Many Traders thought the market was going to rebound and doubled/ tripled their Long positions, again without Stops.
Oh misery! The market resumed its fall, refusing to stop till it hit 105. It was later heard that one particular trader, who had been the toast of the market when it had been trading between 117-124, had been eased out his job and had quietly left the country.
Moral of the Story:
Work with Stops, always. Your stops may be wide; they may even sometimes be mental. But, be disciplined and implement your Stops when the Stop Loss levels are triggered. Otherwise you are committing trading hara-kiri.
Yields have risen across the Curve in line with the anticipations in our Dec-24 report (30-Nov-24, UST10Y 4.18%).Both the US5Yr and US10Yr have risen well as expected. Even the US2Yr has risen, but the rise is a little …. Read More
With the US economic data strong and stable, the earlier expected US slowdown has not played out, resulting in the crude price trading higher while above $70 (Brent). While there is uncertainty in the long-term direction for crude, as long as it stays within the range of $67-80 (Brent), we have kept our earlier forecasts intact this month. Supply from the OPEC countries is also likely to remain tight for the next couple of months. Additionally, a rising Dollar could keep the crude at the higher end of its sideways range for now … Read More
In our Dec-24 edition (12-Dec-24, EURUSD @ 1.0505), we expected the Euro to limit its downside to 1.0333 and bounce back towards 1.0650-1.08 by Feb-25 followed by an eventual rise to 1.09-1.11 by mid of 2025. But contrary to our expectations, Euro broke below 1.0333 and sustained lower towards 1.01. ……. Read More
Our January ’25 Quarterly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
Our January ’25 Quarterly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.