Mar, 28, 2004 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments

FOLLOW UP - Bear SHS in Sterling?
In the last issue we had pointed out a three decade old Downtrend Resistance on the GBPUSD Monthly chart, which presaged weakness in GBPUSD. Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that ALL factors governing Price are in the Price itself and we can predict Price movements through the study of Charts. This assumption seems to be proving correct yet again. The Sterling seems to be developing a Bearish Shoulder Head on the Weekly chart (shown alongside), confirming the prognosis of the monthly chart.
If this works, Cable can fall to 1.73-1.70 over the next 4-8 weeks Negation would need a Week Close above 1.8589, as compared to the current level of 1.8158.
In our last report (29-Apr-26, UST10Yr 4.35%), we had said that the FED was likely to leave rates unchanged, which it did. We had also said that “once Kevin Warsh comes in, the FED is more likely to cut, responding to …. Read More
In our May 2026 report (4-May-26, Brent @ $110.75), we expected Brent to test $90.50 by Jul-26, followed by a rise to $145.13 by Sep-26 and $161.93 by Dec-26. Sustained trade below $100 was expected to be seen only on a credible resolution of the US-Iran war, which looked unlikely … Read More
In our April 2026 report (13-Apr-26, EURUSD 1.1686), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 while retaining our long-term bearishness towards 1.10 by Aug’26. The main reasons were good chances of a rise in the Dollar Index and crude prices. The markets expect the ECB to move. …. Read More
In our 07-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.05%) we had assigned a 65-70% probability to Crude rising towards $145 by Sep-26 and had said that this could cause the CPI to move up to 6.2% by Nov-26 and the 10Yr GOI to target 7.37% by Feb-27. Since then, Brent has seen two short-lived dips below $100 but has … Read More
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
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