Aug, 25, 2004 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments

In this Issue
Keep the Objective in mind. It pays
The definition of proper Objectives is the first step in effective Corporate FX Risk Management. Get your objectives wrong and you are most likely courting trouble. We had taken this up in the Issue dated 28-Mar-04. Having set the correct objectives, the Risk Manager needs to keep them in mind after the Hedge Strategy has been implemented, so as to not be led astray by the market. It pays immensely.
A conglomerate with a Rupee Balance Sheet had a large foreign currency loan book, 85% of which was denominated in US Dollars. The balance was in D-Marks, Yen and Sterling. Circa 1994-95, the Risk Manager decided to reduce the currency concentration risk and rebalance the loan basket using Currency Swaps. The Objective was clearly defined as Risk Diversification.
It was decided to swap 10% of the Dollar loans into Yen. The Yen was chosen because interest rates were close to zero as compared to 6.50-6.75% on the USD 6-month Libor, giving a huge interest benefit. Further, the Yen was expected to weaken over a 3 year time frame. The Swap took place in Jan-95 near 100 on the USDJPY Spot.

Almost immediately thereafter, the Dollar dived against the Yen, to hit an all time low of 79.80 in April 1995. There were 3 months of intense agony. The company had never undertaken such a large forex deal. The Board was on the edge. Had the deal gone horribly wrong? The Risk Manager reminded the Board that the objective was Risk Diversification and only 10% of the loan book had been put on the line. Further, the deal had a 3 year tenor.
The market eventually turned around and the danger passed. The Swap came back into money. Now the Board was tempted to square off the trade and book whatever small profit was available. Again the Risk Manager stuck to his guns, saying the Objective was long term Currency Diversification, not short term Trading Profits. The Board backed down and the Swap was allowed to run its course.
The Yen eventually touched 120 in 1997. The company booked a huge currency and interest rate gain of almost $17 million. Those who have been in the market through that period would appreciate how difficult it must have been to steer such a trade through to its end. It is immensely commendable that the Risk Manager did not waver from the Objective, neither in bad times nor in good times.
The gains from the deal (which in itself was well conceptualized), was realized by remaining focused on the Objective.
For the last few months we have been looking for Crude to rise towards $130-190 and pull up the US CPI towards 4.6% and the US10Yr Yield to 5.4% by Jan-27. This view has clearly gone wrong with Brent falling sharply below $90 as a result of the US-Iran peace deal, which is the …. Read More
In our June 2026 report (1-Jun-26, Brent @ $95.47), we had expected Brent to correct to $88 before bouncing back to $120 and $145 by Aug-26 and Sep-26, respectively. A sustained trade below $90 was said to be incumbent on a fully credible resolution of the US-Iran war. … Read More
In our May 2026 report (11-May-26, EURUSD 1.1762), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 before falling towards 1.16-1.14 in the coming months. We delayed the fall to 1.10 from the earlier expected Aug-26 to Mar-27 as the Dollar Index remained within a broad range for more than expected …. Read More
In our 11-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we had retained our bullish view on Brent towards $134 by Sep-26, while allowing for a near term dip to $95 on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. Brent fell to $89.93, lower than … Read More
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
Our July ’26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

