Apr, 29, 2015 By Vikram Murarka 3 comments
A friend sent an interesting inspirational YouTube video link the other day. The speaker in the video encouraged his audience to look inside themselves to see why they do what they do in their work field. What motivates them? It is the motivating factor behind any product or service offering, in fact behind any endeavor, that shapes its colour and character and ends up as a good or bad feeling with the people who use it.
That got me thinking, why does KSHITIJ.COM forecast currencies?
Before Roger Bannister ran the mile in less than four minutes in 1954, the “4-Minute Mile” was an impossible barrier for humanity to break. Once he smashed the barrier, many others were able to follow. The Tenzing Norgay – Edmund Hillary team scaled the Everest for the first time in 1953, inspiring several others to follow in their footsteps. There are many such stories in every field of human endeavor where people have attempted to do the impossible. And, whether they succeeded or not, they ended up inspiring many. Everyone who attempts to do the impossible is essentially celebrating the human spirit.
Why do we forecast currencies? Primarily to have fun, to rise to the challenge, to prove that it can be done. We are unwilling to accept the notion that currencies cannot be forecasted. We want to stretch the boundaries of the possible.
Back in 1995, people said, “You cannot use Technicals to forecast the Rupee since it’s not a freely traded market”. We did. Successfully. Today we have used the same techniques to forecast thinly traded, tightly controlled exotics like the Egyptian Pound, Myanmar Kyat and Vietnamese Dong, with relatively high degrees of success.
Then people said, “You cannot forecast currencies. At least not for the long term”. We consciously worked to lengthen the horizon of our forecasts, from one week to one month to three months to the twelve months that we routinely forecast now. And we would like to target the 18-month and 24-month time frames next.
Our name, KSHITIJ, means horizon, a never to be reached destination, but a goal that inspires us to keep moving forward. In the process we have undertaken many remarkable journeys in currency forecasting, evolved several new forecasting techniques and made our forecasts better for our Clients.
It is the same spirit of having fun while trying to attempt the impossible that is prompting us to hone our capabilities in forecasting in the “third dimension”. Most forecasters answer only the very basic question, “Where is the market going to go? Up, down or sideways?” This is the first dimension of forecasting. Then, of course, they quickly graduate to predicting the price targets, to answer the second question, “To what level?” This is the second dimension.
Unfortunately, this is where most people tend to stop. Very few people ever make any attempt to answer the question “By when? How long will it take?” This is the third dimension of forecasting, where we have been working for the last 2-3 years, with increasing degrees of success.
After this, we will train our sights on the fourth dimension, the fourth question, which people do not even currently articulate. That is, “What is the path the market will take to reach where you are saying it will reach in your stated time frame?”
Maybe we’ll be able to do it, maybe we won’t. But we’ll surely try. And have fun doing it.
The spirit of celebrating the human spirit goads us to not only cross new horizons but also to continuously improve upon the quality of our forecasts. We started tracking the performance of our Dollar-Rupee forecasts in April 2006. Incidentally, we find that we are the only forecasting service in India that publishes its track record on the web for public scrutiny. We keep wondering, how can improve if you do not track your performance?
For instance, back in October 2008, our reliability (a combination of directional accuracy on the one hand and deviation from actual on the other) stood at barely 41.9%. This was simply unacceptable. Obviously we had to do whatever it takes to improve. And we did. The good news is that our current reliability now stands at a much more satisfying and profitable 72%.
See our forecast reliability at http://72pct.com
Our effort is to increase this reliability to 80%. That is when magic will truly happen. Maybe it is an impossible horizon to chase. But again, it's fun to try the impossible.
While our core motivation in forecasting currencies is to celebrate the human spirit, we also want our forecasts to serve our Clients well. The more reliable our forecasts become, the longer the time frame we cover, the lesser the deviation from the actual, the more closely we are able to map the path to the future, the more useful our forecasts are to our Clients.
The biggest contribution our forecasts make is that they help reduce the fear of foreign exchange in the minds of our Clients and encourages them to undertake systematic forex risk management with greater confidence. To be able to impart a sense of confidence in our Clients is an even bigger motivation than only having fun.
And it is this Spirit of Service, the feeling of exhilaration in having helped our clients achieve their goals, and to form new benchmarks in the arena of currency forecasting, that is our driving force.
When you use our forecasts, you will experience the celebration of the human spirit in the uniqueness, boldness and reliability of our forecasts.