Aug, 25, 2004 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments

In this Issue
Keep the Objective in mind. It pays
The definition of proper Objectives is the first step in effective Corporate FX Risk Management. Get your objectives wrong and you are most likely courting trouble. We had taken this up in the Issue dated 28-Mar-04. Having set the correct objectives, the Risk Manager needs to keep them in mind after the Hedge Strategy has been implemented, so as to not be led astray by the market. It pays immensely.
A conglomerate with a Rupee Balance Sheet had a large foreign currency loan book, 85% of which was denominated in US Dollars. The balance was in D-Marks, Yen and Sterling. Circa 1994-95, the Risk Manager decided to reduce the currency concentration risk and rebalance the loan basket using Currency Swaps. The Objective was clearly defined as Risk Diversification.
It was decided to swap 10% of the Dollar loans into Yen. The Yen was chosen because interest rates were close to zero as compared to 6.50-6.75% on the USD 6-month Libor, giving a huge interest benefit. Further, the Yen was expected to weaken over a 3 year time frame. The Swap took place in Jan-95 near 100 on the USDJPY Spot.

Almost immediately thereafter, the Dollar dived against the Yen, to hit an all time low of 79.80 in April 1995. There were 3 months of intense agony. The company had never undertaken such a large forex deal. The Board was on the edge. Had the deal gone horribly wrong? The Risk Manager reminded the Board that the objective was Risk Diversification and only 10% of the loan book had been put on the line. Further, the deal had a 3 year tenor.
The market eventually turned around and the danger passed. The Swap came back into money. Now the Board was tempted to square off the trade and book whatever small profit was available. Again the Risk Manager stuck to his guns, saying the Objective was long term Currency Diversification, not short term Trading Profits. The Board backed down and the Swap was allowed to run its course.
The Yen eventually touched 120 in 1997. The company booked a huge currency and interest rate gain of almost $17 million. Those who have been in the market through that period would appreciate how difficult it must have been to steer such a trade through to its end. It is immensely commendable that the Risk Manager did not waver from the Objective, neither in bad times nor in good times.
The gains from the deal (which in itself was well conceptualized), was realized by remaining focused on the Objective.
In our last report (27-Feb-26, UST10Yr 4.01%), which was published just one day before the start of the US-Israel-Iran War on 28-Feb, we had continued to target 4.60% on the US10Yr based on expectations of higher Crude. At that time, we were looking for Brent to rise …. Read More
The escalation of war between US and Iran throughout March-26 has led to a rally in Brent prices to as high as $119.50, exceeding our bullish targets by a large margin, much ahead of expected time. Will it remain bullish for the coming years?… Read More
The major rally in crude prices over the last 1-month and continued elevated prices through the year could lay major impact on the currencies. With the Dollar Index and Crude prices being elevated there could be little room for Euro on the upside. However, it would be interesting to see if any resolution is arrived at between US and Iran this year itself which could lead to some stability in prices. …. Read More
In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and potentially force tightening. This inflation shock, along with higher US yields, was expected to push the 10Yr GOI up to … Read More
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
Our April ’26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

