Amplitude Probability Distribution for Currencies
Apr, 26, 2002 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments
It is important to know the characteristics of any market that we trade. This helps us approach the market with more awareness and reduces the element of surprise. It also helps us formulate our trading strategies.
In the following pages we try to answer the question, "How much do currencies move over various time frames". We have examined price data for EUR-USD, USD-JPY and USD-CHF for the last 3 years to see what is the Amplitude (difference between the High and Low) for these currencies over 1, 3 and 5 day time frames.
We believe that this might be helpful in 1) enabling us to choose a suitable Time Frame for our trading activity and 2) forming an idea of how much profit/ loss might be reasonably expected in our chosen time frames.
Put into other words, this is also an examination of the Volatility of the subject currencies in various time frames.
Please click on
EUR-USD
USD-JPY
USD-CHF
EURUSD Amplitude
USDJPY Amplitude
USDCHF Amplitude
Array
In our last report (28-Jun-25, UST10Yr 4.28%) we had highlighted the stagflation dilemma faced by the US FED (which still remains); had said that the Inflation Expectation could rise (it did indeed rise); that Inflation is …. Read More
Our August 2025 Crude Oil Monthly Report covers updates on OPEC+ production, inventory changes and cross-commodity correlations. Our analysis includes both technical setups and broader market indicators shaping the near-term outlook for Brent. … Read More
Markets see the ECB on hold through 2025, with slim odds of a September cut, while the Fed is 90% likely to ease next month after the downward revision in the recent US NFP data release on 01-Aug. …. Read More
In our 10-Jul-25 report (10Yr GOI 6.38%) we said that Crude might have bottomed and could rise towards $82 (in the long term), limiting the downside for inflation … Read More
In our 09-Jul-25 report (USDJPY 146.81), an initial rise to 150-152 was expected, followed by a fall to 144.50-143.50 before eventually rallying towards 155 in the long term. As anticipated, the USDJPY observed … Read More
Our August ’25 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.