Apr, 26, 2002 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments

It is important to know the characteristics of any market that we trade. This helps us approach the market with more awareness and reduces the element of surprise. It also helps us formulate our trading strategies.
In the following pages we try to answer the question, "How much do currencies move over various time frames". We have examined price data for EUR-USD, USD-JPY and USD-CHF for the last 3 years to see what is the Amplitude (difference between the High and Low) for these currencies over 1, 3 and 5 day time frames.
We believe that this might be helpful in 1) enabling us to choose a suitable Time Frame for our trading activity and 2) forming an idea of how much profit/ loss might be reasonably expected in our chosen time frames.
Put into other words, this is also an examination of the Volatility of the subject currencies in various time frames.
Please click on
EUR-USD
USD-JPY
USD-CHF
EURUSD Amplitude

USDJPY Amplitude

USDCHF Amplitude

In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
In our last report (04-Sep-26, UST10Y 4.77%) we had noted chances of a slowdown ahead but since Crude could spike up, we retained our view of the US10Yr rising to 5.10% by Nov-26 and 5.40% by Mar-27. As it turns out, Brent did indeed rise to …. Read More
In our September 2026 report (11-Sep-26, Brent @ $103.84), we had expected Brent to range within $90-115 for the next 1year. Prices were expected to remain elevated, primarily driven by the low volume of vessel transit in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent indeed traded within $109.97 and $90.70 in Sep-26, within our expected range. … Read More
In our September 2026 report (4-Sep-26, EURUSD 1.1620), we revised our Euro forecast upwards due to lack of followthrough selling below 1.14. We expected the Euro to range between 1.1980-1.13 for the next 1yr. However, in line with our earlier bearish outlook, the Euro fell sharply to …. Read More
In our 10-Sep-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.98%), we had noted that the Long end of the Curve, viz. the 10Yr GOI was rising due to a number of factors. We said, “Whether the RBI will raise rates on 07-Oct will depend on whether Crude happens to be breaking higher or would have cooled off from $105 to $95” … Read More
Our October ’26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

