Oct, 26, 2017 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments
Our apologies that we were unable to publish this report in October 2017. In our last report dated 04-Sep-17, we said, “We remain cautious on the Dow and Sensex and bullish on the Shanghai, which is likely to outperform both.” We have been surprised by the continued strength in Dow Jones (23329) which has broken well above 22500 instead of starting a decline towards 20000. The Sensex (33056) has also moved up from 31809 instead of falling towards 30000. Thankfully, our bullishness on the Shanghai paid off a bit, although it could not compensate for our bearishness on the Dow and on the Sensex.
While we have been surprised by the continued bullishness in global Equities in the last couple of months, we still see limited upside over the next month or two and still see chances of a corrective fall thereafter.
In our Nov-24 report (31-Oct-24, US10Yr @ 4.26%), we had said that it was possible that the FED may cut rates by at least another 50bp in 2024; that the fall in the US10Yr from 5.02% is over and an immediate dip from 4.4% to 4.0-3.8% could give way to an eventual rise past 4.8% towards 5.0%. In line with that, the FED did cut rates by 25bp in November. Although the US 10Yr rose to …. Read More
With recent US economic data coming out strong, there has been reduced chances for an immediate economic slowdown in the US. Will this reduce chances of a decline in the crude prices and continue to keep it ranged? Or can there still be a significant movement in crude in the coming months?. … Read More
After Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections, will the Dollar Index fall in the coming months aiding Euro strength? Or will aggressive rate cuts by the ECB and political uncertainity in Germany and France continue to put downside pressure on the Euro? ……. Read More
Our November ’24 Monthly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
Our November ’24 Monthly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.