Oct, 26, 2017 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments

Our apologies that we were unable to publish this report in October 2017. In our last report dated 04-Sep-17, we said, “We remain cautious on the Dow and Sensex and bullish on the Shanghai, which is likely to outperform both.” We have been surprised by the continued strength in Dow Jones (23329) which has broken well above 22500 instead of starting a decline towards 20000. The Sensex (33056) has also moved up from 31809 instead of falling towards 30000. Thankfully, our bullishness on the Shanghai paid off a bit, although it could not compensate for our bearishness on the Dow and on the Sensex.
While we have been surprised by the continued bullishness in global Equities in the last couple of months, we still see limited upside over the next month or two and still see chances of a corrective fall thereafter.





In our last report (28-Mar-26, UST10Yr 4.43%), we had assumed little chances of the USA being able to easily extricate itself from the US-Israel-Iran war, and we said that as long Brent remains above $80, we can look for a sharper rise in the US10Yr towards …. Read More
The escalation of war between US and Iran throughout March-26 has led to a rally in Brent prices to as high as $119.50, exceeding our bullish targets by a large margin, much ahead of expected time. Will it remain bullish for the coming years?… Read More
The major rally in crude prices over the last 1-month and continued elevated prices through the year could lay major impact on the currencies. With the Dollar Index and Crude prices being elevated there could be little room for Euro on the upside. However, it would be interesting to see if any resolution is arrived at between US and Iran this year itself which could lead to some stability in prices. …. Read More
In our 09-Mar-26 report (10Yr GOI 6.69%) we had warned that the sharp rise in crude due to the US-Iran conflict could push Brent toward $134, which would lift CPI toward ~6.2%, eliminating any chance of RBI easing, and potentially force tightening. This inflation shock, along with higher US yields, was expected to push the 10Yr GOI up to … Read More
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
Our April ’26 Dollar Rupee Quarterly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

