Feb, 25, 2026 By Vikram Murarka 0 comments


In the gym, lifting extra weight often leads to injury.
In FX, hedging exposure beyond what’s required leads to unnecessary risk.
Many hedging decisions fail not because markets surprise us, but because actions are taken too quickly or without structure. Chasing short-term moves, hedging too aggressively, or reacting to noise usually increases costs instead of reducing risk.
Good currency management is about restraint. Knowing when to act and when not to.
At Kshitij, our FX research is built to support measured decisions, focusing on timing, cost efficiency, and control rather than constant action.
Because in FX, doing more doesn’t mean doing better.
Doing what’s necessary does.
#FX #CurrencyRisk #HedgingStrategy #RiskManagement #Treasury #Markets
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to … Read More
Our last report (03-Oct-26, UST10Y 5.28%) warned of increased chances of Brent rising towards $135-145, US Core PCE rising towards 4.5-5.0% and the US10Yr rising towards 5.80% (Dec-26) and 6.00% (Aug-27). While Brent has risen to nearly $117 and the Core PCE (Aug-27) has inched up to 3.01%, we find that US Yields have fallen across …. Read More
In our October 2026 report (5-Oct-26, Brent @ $101.71), we had stated Brent would be structurally bullish for the long term based on the technical analysis, within which a test of $115 was expected in Oct-26, followed by a test of $134 by Dec-26 and eventually targeting $145 in 2027. In line with our expectation, Brent did test $117.45, slightly higher than our expected $115 in Oct-26. … Read More
In our October 2026 report (9-Oct-26, EURUSD 1.1250), we revised our Euro forecast downwards on a decline below 1.13 and expected a fall towards 1.10-1.0875 by the next year. Rising crude prices were a concern and were expected to raise the US and Euro yields further, along with the inflation figures. The Euro has been declining while below 1.13 and has tested
1.11 so far. Both the ECB and the FED kept policy rates unchanged in the Oct-26 meeting, while the markets expect a rate hike in the Dec-26 meeting by both central banks. …. Read More
In our 06-Oct-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.19%%), we examined the possibility of the RBI not raising the Repo rate, even though 91% of the market expected it to raise. We were barking up the wrong tree as the RBI did indeed raise the Repo on 07-Oct. Thankfully, our forecasted rise in Brent to $115-120 did materialize well with Brent touching a high of $118 on 30-Oct. We also forecasted that … Read More
Our November ’26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

