Your exposure is your position

Mar, 23, 2012     By Vikram    0 comments


Most corporate risk managers refer to their hedges, such as forward contacts, as their "market position". They think that taking a hedge is the same as taking a trading position in the market. This is because taking a hedge is an act of volition, undertaken after due deliberation. Something is consciously done. The risk manager says he has taken a "market position". Further, there is a tendency to cancel and rebook forward contracts (something that has been curtailed by the RBI's Dec-11 guidelines), which has tended to give the hedge the flavour of a trading position.

Payoff on Unhedged Exports

However, this is incorrect. The hedge is not the company's actual market position. It is a transaction undertaken to offset, or square off, or negate, the actual underlying position that the company has in the market, as a result of its fundamental business transactions. See diagrams alongside

 

Payoff on USD Fwd Sales

For instance, an Exporter who is to receive Dollars after 3 months has an intrinsic Long position in the market. The value of his receivable Long position increases if the Dollar rises against the Rupee, it decreases if the Dollar falls against the Rupee. In other words, the export receivable is exposed to market fluctuations, and is, in actuality, his position in the market.

Exports hedged with Forwards

If the Exporter now sells Dollars Forward for 3 months against this export receivable, he is hedging or closing out or squaring off his export receivable position. If the Dollar moves up against the Rupee, the gain on the exports is offset by the loss on the forward contract. On a net basis, therefore, the value of the Export Receivable is no longer exposed to market fluctuations. The position has been closed through the hedge, through the Forward Sale contract.

Similar, but opposite is the position of the Importer, who is Short Dollars in the market by virtue of his imports. He has to buy Dollars in the market to make good his payment obligation. When he actually buys Forward Dollars, he is not taking a fresh position in the market. He is simply covering his exposure, providing for his payment obligation, squaring off the risk of Rupee depreciation.

Unfortunately, since the Risk Manager does not himself undertake the export or import transaction, or because the actually underlying position is created by default, there is a tendency to not recognize it for what it is, viz. the company's actual position in the currency market. It is unfortunate because this misunderstanding causes the company to ignore and overlook the profit or loss on its actual position and instead focus on the profit or loss of its hedge. This is akin to losing sight of the woods for the trees, because, usually, the quantum of the actual underlying exposure is greater than the quantum of the hedge.

Hedge ExposureThus, when a hedge, whose quantum is, say, 30% of the actual underlying exposure, makes money, there is no reason to be overjoyed. Quite obviously, when the 30% hedge is making money, the balance 70% unhedged exposure is losing money. Similarly, if the 30% hedge loses money, that is no reason to crucify the risk manager - the balance 70% unhedged exposure is actually making money. In fact, therefore, if the hedge ratio is less than 50%, a loss making hedge is to be preferred to a profitable hedge.

Vikram

Currency forecaster, advisor. Apart from that, like the rest of everybody else in most things. Bit of a sticktoitivit.



Leave a Reply


Dollar Rupee Forecast. Get a Free Trial

TWEETS


Need reliable Euro Yen and Aussie forecasts for business costing and planning your hedges? https://t.co/IwmHNQkUU8 https://t.co/IwmHNQkUU8

4 days ago  

Channel of 1360-1300 likely to continue for a couple of months more? #Gold (1315.12) https://t.co/ngkM5XoXZQ https://t.co/ngkM5XoXZQ

8 days ago  

Support near 1300-1310 holding since Jul'16. A bounce back to 1340 and higher is likely https://t.co/GKl5IBWuPG https://t.co/GKl5IBWuPG

11 days ago  

Resistance @ 103.5 can hold on USDJPY, if the US-Japan differential limits its rally? https://t.co/bgOpMKMsi1 https://t.co/bgOpMKMsi1

11 days ago